More on Voting Patterns: Comparing U.S. and VA to Predict Local Trends

(A quick word from our sponsor: on 4/21/10 the Charter change moving Christiansburg elections to November beginning 2011 was enacted and become effective on 7/1/10.)

Voting Pattern “Did you knows” : Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2008.

Did you know (This points out some additional reasons why the Census is so important):

In the United States, when grouped by race:

• White Alone: (Total Population 183,169,000)
  • 66.6% report being registered
  • 59.6% of that 66.6% reported voting

• Black Alone: (Total Population of 26,528,000)
  • 65.5% report being registered
  • 60.8% of that 65.5% reported voting

In total population, Virginia is 13th highest in the United States (5,720,000).

In Total number of people registered, Virginia ranks 13th (3,950,000) but is 23rd in the actual percentage of registered voters.

In the total number of people who are registered, Virginia ranks 12th (3,650,000) in those who reported they had voted, but is 18th in the percentage of people reporting that they voted.

In the State of Virginia, when grouped by race:

• White Alone: (Total Population of 4,288,000).
  • 70.1% report being registered
  • 64.8% of that 70.1% reported voting.
• Black Alone: (Total Population of 1,031,000).
  • 70.5% report being registered
  • 66.6% of that 70.5% reported voting.
• White Alone or in combination (Total Population of 4,321,000)
  • 72.2% reported being registered.
  • 64.8% of that 72.2% reported voting.
• Black Alone or in combination (Total Population of 1,059,000)
  • 70.7% reported being registered
  • 66.4% of that 70.7% reported voting.

All these numbers look nice, but how much meaning to they have at the local level? No similar data groups are available at the level of Town Elections. Instead, I have taken the 2008 data that is available for Christiansburg and came up with some expectations based on per cent population and overall voter turnout for the 2008 election. These are just estimates and it is likely that the real numbers could differ significantly.

**As of 11/29/2008, Christiansburg had a total of 13,986 (from State Board of Elections website) registered voters and (from CityData) a total population estimate of 19,500. Males represent 48% of the population while females represent 52%. 93% of the population is White, 5% is African American, and 2% are noted as being Other/Mixed.During the May Christiansburg elections the results were (From SBE download file) a total of 3,853 votes were cast from the 13,986 registered voters. So roughly 28% of registered voters came to the polls.

Several issues become apparent with this ‘hypothetical data’. First, based upon the number of registered voters, it may well be that the population estimate is significantly lower than presented here. That could also skew the numbers represented by those groups calculated on the % of the population represented by each group.

Next, there is no clear data as to voting patterns at the local levels so all of the above numbers are based upon the group patterns and populations that were found within the population estimates.

The most significant issues seen in this ‘hypothetical scenario is that there is a significant potential for any of the groups to have a significant impact on a local election simply by getting out to vote. If any of the groups puts forth a concerted effort to drive voter turnout and, as a group, support on candidate or position, the outcome of an election could be determined by that group. During the 2008 Town council election, the top vote getter (Michael Barber) had 857 votes. The 2006 race for Mayor of Christiansburg was uncontested and Richard Ballengee had 1,147 votes.

Based upon those numbers it is clear to see what just a small percentage of those registered voters who did not vote could do to change an election. Yes, these numbers are speculative, but they certainly give those who are interested something to think about.